Yup, this is Moral Dimensions and I'm going to drown you in statistics.
I'm a bit disappointed in Safe Streets assessment I linked earlier. The conclusions sound pretty rosy, but there are two things that - while they mention - they don't really emphasize in declaring Safe Streets a success.
First, that the overall statistically significant reduction in violence represents a serious reduction at the Cherry Hill site and less/no change or even an increase at some of the East Baltimore sites. I don't want to make it sound like they don't discuss this, because they do... but in the end the hypothesis is that the site that saw the increase was maybe where a war was brewing anyway. Which might be true. But deflects any deeper inquiry into what characteristics might distinguish neighborhoods or implementers for whom Safe Streets/Ceasefire works from those for whom it doesn't. I need to dig up the Chicago assessment (but I'm too busy getting ready to record y'all's Environment lecture. Did I mention I know jack about environmental policy?).
Second, and this gets an even briefer mention, the impact of the BPD's Violent Crime Impact Section on Homicide+NFS is larger than any other statistically significant impact on the combined measure. This strikes me as something specially interesting because of the wall that the Safe Streets model erects between outreach and police. Again, it's not like I'm saying they should work with police. But given the apparently positive impact, it seems like ways in which police and outreach responses might interact bears more investigation.
Kathleen, tell David Simon to drop Treme. I demand a season six of The Wire that's all Prez and Freamon hunched over STATA for 13 episodes.
Update- Professor Levine, No such luck on your request. My son and I saw David Simon at breakfast on Sunday. While, my son did a good job flirting with his daughter. They have been out of town filming Treme in NOLA.
ReplyDeleteMaybe by the time there is a STAT28 you'll have your dream come true?